The baht strengthened to its highest level in 2 weeks.

Keep an eye on 4 important factors next week.
The baht returned to its strongest level in more than two weeks at 35.20 baht per dollar. Receive signals from the results of the Fed meeting This is in line with Thai stocks that turned around and closed positive at the end of the week. Keep an eye on important factors next week. Inflation in January in Thailand (5 Feb.) Results of the MPC meeting. (Feb. 7) and the flow of foreign investment capital Including the operating results for the 4th quarter of 2023 of Thai companies.
The baht strengthened at the beginning of the week in line with other currencies. in the region and the increase in gold prices in the world market While purchasing the dollar slowed down before the Fed meeting The baht returned to depreciate for a short period in the middle of the week, contrary to the dollar. which strengthened after signals from the Fed Chairman that reflected that The Fed will not cut the policy interest rate at its March meeting. That’s coming soon
However, the baht strengthened again at the end of the week, consistent with foreign investors’ net long positions on Thai stocks. While the dollar Weakened following the decline of US bond yields. (U.S. 10-year bond yield dropped to below 4.00%) amid speculation about the timing of U.S. interest rate cuts. that may have an increased possibility Especially around the meeting after March.
In addition, the dollar also had negative factors from ISM manufacturing data in January, which reflected a continued contraction of the US manufacturing sector, although the index value was better than market expectations.

On Friday, February 2, 2024 (before the New York market session), the baht closed at 35.22 baht per dollar compared to 35.63 baht per dollar. On the previous Friday (26 Jan. 2024), for the investment portfolio status of foreign investors between 29 Jan. – 2 Feb. 2024, foreign investors net bought Thai stocks of 1,980 million baht. But there is a status of Net Outflows from the Thai bond market of 7,410 million baht (net sales of bonds of 7,400 million baht and expired debt instruments of 10 million baht).

In addition, the market is still waiting for the results of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. China’s inflation situation as reflected in the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index in January and the Service Sector PMI in January of Japan, China, the Eurozone and the UK as well.

As for the movement of the Thai stock market The Thai stock index turned around and closed positive. After fluctuating fluctuations at the beginning of the week Thai stocks rebounded at the beginning of the week in response to positive factors from news of the signing of a permanent Thai-Chinese visa-free agreement. before shrinking in the middle of the week following investor selling pressure ahead of the Fed meeting. In addition, there are additional negative factors such as the China Manufacturing PMI Index reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. (which is below the 50 level, reflecting the contraction of the manufacturing sector) Concern about political issues in the country and news reports about the BoT’s preparations to reduce the Thai economic forecast.

However, Thai stocks recovered during the rest of the week following the purchasing power of foreign investors. After the Fed decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 5.25-5.50% as expected, along with support from positive signals about the direction of foreign stocks. and strong buyback of Thai stocks Especially the finance, technology and energy groups.

On Friday, February 2, 2024, the SET Index closed at 1,384.08 points, an increase of 1.16% from the level at the end of the previous week. Meanwhile, the average daily trading value was 43,617.53 million baht, down 10.41% from the previous week. The mai index increased 0.05% to close at 409.01 points.

Next week (5-9 Feb.), Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. sees that the Thai stock index has support levels at 1,375 and 1,360 points, while resistance levels are at 1,400 and 1,415 points, respectively. The Kasikorn Research Center assesses important factors that Must follow, including the MPC meeting (7 Feb.) the direction of foreign capital. and operating results for the 4th quarter of 2023 of Thai companies

Important US economic data includes import and export data in December, the ISM/PMI service sector index in January, and the number of people applying for weekly unemployment benefits. Meanwhile, other foreign economic data includes the January service sector PMI index of China, Japan, the EU zone and the UK. Including China’s January Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index.
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